BOWL WEEK, BABY
The first round of the playoffs was unkind to the Power four home teams and equally so to Group of five road teams. Alabama and Miami, FL pulled convincing upsets on the road, while Oregon and Ole Miss held serve in a big way over CFP’s two Group of five teams. The results set up a gargantuan CFP 2nd Round at Bowl sites, plus, THE KINDER’S TEXAS BOWL IS HERE!! Bowl Week, baby, so I’ll preview that matchup for this weekend.
2nd Round CFP
Rose Bowl - New Year’s Day
(9) Alabama v. (1) Indiana
The Crimson Tide took body blows throughout the first quarter at Oklahoma, but steadied themselves, got back in the fight and eventually knocked out the Sooners in Norman. Freshman WR Lotzeir Brooks made one heck of a catch-and-run TD on a fourth down to break the scoring seal for the Tide and they never looked back.
But, now it’s the steadiest team in the nation, the number one ranked Indiana Hoosiers and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza standing in the way of an Alabama trip to the semifinals. Last year, Oregon was Indiana (number one team, riding high after beating Penn State in the B1G Championship) and the Ducks got boatraced in Pasadena against the soon-to-be national champion Ohio State Buckeyes. Alabama isn’t last year’s Ohio State and Indiana isn’t quite last year’s Oregon squad, but there are similarities to last year’s Buckeyes’ convincing victory.
Consequently, Indiana has never been in this situation, while Alabama has thrived in this high profile situation over the past two decades. But, it’s that steadiness that has made Indiana dangerous. The Hoosiers are going to be a solid 8 or 8.5 in every game, so if the Tide brings their subpar game, the Hoosiers will slowly dismantle Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama squad. If the Tide brings their 9 or 9.5 game, they can beat anyone, anywhere.
Orange Bowl - New Year’s Day
(5) Oregon v. (4) Texas Tech
Last year, as I mentioned above, the Ducks were the clear number one team in the nation, got a bye, went to Pasadena and got embarrassed by a hot Ohio State team. This time, the Ducks had to play in the first round and made quick work of James Madison in Autzen Stadium. This Ducks team strikes me as one that can handle this playoff situation better than last year’s team. The running game is better. The QB is much better. The defense is bigger, tougher and nastier.
Texas Tech, though, has one of the best front sixes/sevens in the nation. NT Lee Hunter gets no recognition and deserves a ton of it. Edge rusher David Bailey can make things miserable for Oregon QB Dante Moore. LB Jacob Rodriguez might go down in college football history as one of the five most decorated linebackers ever.
But, can Texas Tech throw the ball effectively against this Oregon defense? Can Texas Tech QB Behren Morton be careful with the ball AND push the envelope at the same time? Will Tech shrink in the spotlight of a big New Year’s Day Playoff game, somewhere they’ve never been? This one is my favorite matchup of the 2nd round.
Sugar Bowl - New Year’s Day
(6) Ole Miss v. (3) Georgia
REMATCH TIME! In the first game in Athens, Ole Miss was HOT offensively. The Rebels went TD, TD, TD, TD and TD on the first five drives of the game. But, the Georgia defense stiffened in the second half and Georgia QB Gunner Stockton took over. The Dawgs drive chart was even better - FG, TD, TD, Half, TD, TD, TD, FG, End of Game. 43-35 in a high scoring, old school Big 12 type of game.
I don’t expect that level of scoring in this rematch, but I do think if the Rebels are going to win this game, they need more out of RB Kewan Lacy, who only had 31 yards in the first game (two TD, but not much impact on the ground otherwise). The Rebels created big plays in the passing game, mostly from their number one target De’Zhaun Stribling going HAM on a 75-yard catch-and-run TD.
Georgia has played as well as any other program over the last month and a half or so of the season. The Dawgs ran Alabama out of Mercedes Benz Stadium in the SEC Championship and the defense started to show its teeth…finally. I think it’s more of a 23-17 kind of game than the offensive track meet it was in October.
Cotton Bowl - New Year’s Eve Night
(10) Miami, FL v. (2) Ohio State
The Hurricanes upset Texas A&M in College Station in one of the most physical games of the college football season. The Aggies OL and others had some things to say about Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor prior to the game and those two ran roughshod through the Aggies’ backfield all day. I can’t put in print what Bain had to say after the game, but they HEARD what A&M had to say.
So, I don’t expect Ohio State head coach Ryan Day to encourage his guys to say anything untoward in this matchup, but the Buckeyes should be dialed in. They lost the B1G Championship game, not producing much offensively in the red zone, so QB Julian Sayin and company must rev the engine early and often. The Buckeyes’ bye week was needed in a big way as it gave star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate time to rehab injuries and lock into facing the Hurricanes in Arlington.
Miami, FL QB Carson Beck really didn’t do much in last week’s win as WR/Weapon X Malachi Toney and RB Mark Fletcher Jr took over in the fourth quarter of the win over Texas A&M. As such, if the Hurricanes want to get revenge 23 years later, they’ll need a masterful performance from Beck in Jerry World to pull the upset.
Now, it’s time to dive into my Texas Bowl preview - LET’S GO!!
LSU (7-5)
W @ Clemson 17-10
W La. Tech 23-7
W Florida 20-10
W SELA 56-10
L @ #6 Ole Miss 24-19
W South Carolina 20-10
L @ #13 Vanderbilt 31-24
L #7 Texas A&M 49-24
L @ #11 Alabama 20-9
W Arkansas 23-22
W Western Kentucky 13-10
L @ #8 Oklahoma 17-13
Kinder’s Texas Bowl v. Houston at NRG Stadium
Offense
Passing
Garrett Nussmeier (nine games) - 194 of 288 (67.4%), 1.927 yards, 12 TD & five INT
Michael Van Buren Jr. (six games) - 78 of 125 (62.4%), 743 yards, five TD & two INT
Rushing
Caden Durham (11 games) - 106 att for 505 yards and three TD
Harlem Berry (12 games) - 101 att for 446 yards and two TD
Ju’Juan Johnson (12 games) - 38 att for 151 yards and two TD
Michael Van Buren Jr (12 games) - 37 att for 105 yards and one TD
Receiving
Barion Brown (12 games) - 52 receptions for 495 yards and one TD
Zavion Thomas (12 games) - 40 receptions for 473 yards and four TD
Aaron Anderson (nine games) - 33 receptions for 398 yards
Trey’Dez Green (TE - ten games) - 29 receptions for 353 yards and five TD
The offense has struggled all season long. Even though All-SEC QB Garrett Nussmeier returned after a productive 2024 season, the Tigers didn’t score more than 25 points on offense against an FBS opponent all season long. Even with the explosive perimeter players on the roster, the Tigers just couldn’t move the ball effectively throughout the season.
Late in the season, a combination of injury and inconsistent play moved Nussmeier out of the starting lineup for the Mississippi State transfer Van Buren Jr. He didn’t produce a ton, but he engineered a couple of wins down the stretch. He can make plays happen out of structure and that’s certainly needed behind an OL that struggled to replace four NFL players from 2024’s starting lineup.
Green has the makings of a star at TE and Anderson is one of the best slot receivers in the nation. But, Anderson missed the last two games and only played nine games in 2024. His availability in this game is up in the air at this point. But, I would love to see his explosiveness in Houston once again.
Defense
Tackles
S A.J. Haulcy (Houston transfer - 12 games) - 88 total
LB Davhon Keys (12 games) - 78 total
LB West Weeks (11 games) - 74 total
S Tamarcus Cooley (12 games) - 60 total
LB Harold Perkins Jr (12 games) - 56 total
TFL
LB Harold Perkins Jr - 8.0
LB West Weeks - 8.0
DE Jack Pyburn (12 games) - 5.5
DL Bernard Gooden (11 games) - 4.0
Sacks
LB Harold Perkins Jr - 4.0
LB West Weeks - 2.5
CB DJ Pickett (12 games) - 2.0
DE Dylan Carpenter (nine games) - 2.0
Interceptions
S A.J. Haulcy - three
LB Harold Perkins Jr - three
CB DJ Pickett - three
CB Mansoor Delane (11 games) - two
S Dashawn Spears (12 games) - two
CB PJ Woodland (12 games) - two
S Tamarcus Cooley - two
This LSU defense played with a point to prove all season long and it was a nasty unit, led by DC Blake Baker. Early in the season, this unit had Florida QB D.J. Lagway so completely turned upside down after five picks that he nearly never rebounded.
The leader MLB Whit Weeks missed four games and yet that never slowed this group. Harold Perkins Jr. found his playmaking skills again. The secondary was a ball hawking unit, led by S A.J Haulcy who will face his former team in his final college game.
CB Mansoor Delane is a future first round pick, so it’s not ultimately clear whether he’ll play in the game, but the Tigers do have depth behind him if he chooses to start preparing for the NFL Draft.
This defensive unit has saved the offense’s bacon throughout the season and it might have to do so one more time against Conner Weigman and company.
Houston (9-3)
W Stephen F. Austin 27-0
W @ Rice 35-9
W Colorado 36-20
W @ Oregon State 27-24
L #4 Texas Tech 35-11
W @ Oklahoma State 39-17
W #21 Arizona 31-28
W @ Arizona State 24-16
L West Virginia 45-35
W @ UCF 30-27
L TCU 17-14
W @ Baylor 31-24
Offense
Passing
Conner Weigman (12 games) - 204 of 319 (63.9%), 2,475 yards, 21 TD & nine TD
Rushing
Dean Connors (12 games) - 184 att for 851 yards and five TD
Conner Weigman - 158 att for 644 yards and 11 TD
DJ Butler (ten games) - 60 att for 280 yards
Stacy Sneed (nine games) - 35 att for 127 yards
Receiving
Amare Thomas (12 games) - 59 receptions for 906 yards and ten TD
Tanner Koziol (TE - 12 games) - 65 receptions for 651 yards and five TD
Stephon Johnson (six games) - 13 receptions for 275 yards and two TD (out for season)
Dean Connors - 31 receptions for 242 yards and three TD
The Cougars big four of Weigman, Connors, Koziol and Thomas were outstanding and were the bulk of the offense this year. Connors, Koziol and Thomas accounted for 72.4% of the receptions on the season. Connors and Weigman accounted for 70.9% of the rushing yards on the season (68.0% of the carries on the season).
So, the offense runs through those four and will continue to do so in this bowl game, although we don’t entirely know if that quartet will be on the field in this bowl game. If they are, this Houston offense taking on the LSU defense will be an awesome matchup to watch. The Houston OL must stay latched on blocks against the front to occupy the Weeks’ brothers and Perkins if they hope to produce on the ground and protect Weigman, who needs time to throw.
Defense
Tackles
LB Jalen Garner (12 games) - 75 total
DT Carlos Allen Jr (12 games) - 75 total
S Kentrell Webb (12 games) - 69 total
DE Eddie Walls III (12 games) - 56 total
LB Sione Fotu (12 games) - 55 total
TFL
DE Eddie Walls III - 9.0
DT Carlos Allen Jr - 7.0
OLB Brandon Mack II (12 games) - 6.0
S Wrook Brown (12 games) - 6.0
LB Corey Platt Jr. (11 games) - 5.0
Sacks
DE Eddie Walls III - 5.5
OLB Brandon Mack II - 5.0
LB Corey Platt Jr. - 3.0
S Wrook Brown - 2.5
Interceptions
CB Will James (12 games) - three
LB Latreveon McCutchin (12 games) - two
S Wrook Brown - two
Nickel Marc Stampley II (12 games) - two
Watching the Houston defense over the past decade or so was a frustrating experience, but this group was incredibly disciplined, for the most part, tackled well and didn’t often beat itself. It’s not a unit led by stars and names you know, but it’s a “whole is greater than the sum of its parts” sort of a unit.
I love the interior guys - Walls and Allen Jr - they are incredibly quick, powerful and agile, creating mayhem for interior OL consistently. Given that the LSU OL never really found its footing and its level in 2025, Walls and Allen Jr could really feast in this matchup.
The secondary missed Haulcy, who they’ll see on the other sideline in this game, but the group played well throughout season, getting positive contributions from a litany of defensive backs in 2025.
It’s always hard to know in a bowl situation who is going to play, who has moved on in the transfer portal or who’s headed to the NFL Draft; however, I do know that DC Austin Armstrong will have this unit competin’ and playin’ its guts out in front of the home folks one final time in 2025.